Cabinet Maker takes a look at what the daily polls suggest as the countdown concludes in the highly anticipated EU Referendum vote today, 23 June.

 

Thursday 23 June 2016 (changes highlighted *)

What the polls say

Poll

Remain %

Leave %

YouGov*

51

49

Ipsos MORI*

52

48

Opinium

44

45

TNS UK*

41

43

Survation

45

44

ComRes

46

45

ORB

53

47

Mean Verdict:

47.4%

45.8%

 

What the bookies say

Bookmaker

Remain Odds

Leave Odds

Ladbrokes

1/8

5

Bet365

1/7

9/2

William Hill

1/7

9/2

Sky Bet

1/6

4

Paddy Power

1/7

5

Coral

1/7

4

Bet Fred

1/7

9/2

Verdict:

Favourite

 

 

Roundup: Day Four (as figures suggest at time of publication)

Day Three suggested: Polls – Remain 44.4%, Leave 45.8%. The bookies maintained a clear favourite of a Remain vote.

Day Four suggests that three of the main polls registered a change with two swinging in the direction of a Remain vote, bumping up the total by +3%. Leave remained static, as the final polls show that Remain just edges it going into the day of voting. The bookies have, for a final time, favoured the Remain vote by shrinking the odds across the board and extending the Leave odds to an average of +1 – indicating a better value bet to Leave than yesterday’s Leave odds. However, with all bookmakers focusing on a tight margin for Remain – reducing a potential profit to around 12p from 25p off a standard £1 bet earlier in the week, a Remain vote is clearly the favourite.

Voting remains open until 10pm tonight, with the result expected to be announced some time Friday 24 June. The EU debate has been a tightly contested referendum, with the verdict whether the UK will Remain or Leave eagerly anticipated.